By Mohammad Gharebag,
A poll carried out by Iranian local media on Monday shows that incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who is running for a second term in this month's presidential election, is well ahead of the other five candidates.
According to the semi-official Iranian Students Polling Agency, 43.5 percent of Iranians will vote for Rouhani while 22.6 percent support Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in the May 19 election. Ebrahim Raisi, a former attorney general who has the support of stanch conservatives, is running in third place at 17.4 percent.
Speaking to Kyodo News, political analyst Abbas Abdi says that among the candidates Rouhani has a better chance than the others.
"Running the country requires some essential properties which Rouhani has more of than the other candidates," he added.
Two weeks after the release of the names of qualified candidates out of 1,600 registered names, it is more obvious that Rouhani, a moderate, and First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, one of the six candidates, are playing on the same team while still there is no sign of unification between their conservative rivals, Ghalibaf and Raisi.
"Rouhani and Jahangiri are completely consonant and one of them eventually will step down to support the other, but Ghalibaf and Raisi are moving independently and this can be the Achilles' heel of conservatives," Abdi said.
"The conservative faction has no leader so far and this is why their candidates are moving without coordination and a clear plan," he added.
Seyed Mostafa Mirsalim and Mostafa Hashemitaba, both independents, are the other two candidates, and their share in recent polls is less than 4 percent in total.
Before the first live debate broadcast on state-run TV on Friday, Raisi seemed to be the main rival to Rouhani. But Ghalibaf's strong showing during the debate showed that the main competition is going to be between Rouhani's team and Ghalibaf.
"Compared with Raisi, Ghalibaf has a better chance because he has a track record in Tehran municipality and can...get the support of pragmatists. On the other hand, Ghalibaf's supporters are more likely to change their mind," the analyst added.
In 2013, Ghalibaf lost the presidential election to Rouhani with a gap of 12 million votes. Despite three losses in the last three elections, he is very keen to win the upcoming race, campaigning on an anti-corruption and pro-employment platform.
(clockwise from top L) Eshaq Jahangiri, Hassan Rouhani, Seyed Mostafa Mirsalim, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Seyed Ebrahim Raisi and Seyed Mostafa Hashemitaba.
Raisi kicked off his election campaign criticizing Rouhani's management of the economy and the rate of unemployment in the country. He promises to create 1 million jobs per year on top of increasing cash subsidies by up to three times.
At his first campaign event in central Tehran, people dissatisfied with the current president explained the appeal of Raisi.
"I'm here to support Raisi because I'm tired of the current government's approach. We need a revolutionary president who can be strong under U.S. pressure, a president who can wipe out the corruption and discrimination from this country," Amir Hossein Rostami, 25, told Kyodo News.
Zahra Yeganeh, a 23-year-old software expert, told Kyodo News that the time has come for the country "to get back our dignity."
"Rouhani's government had compromised with world powers and sold out the country without gaining anything. We lost out nuclear ability for nothing," she added.
She was referring to the 2015 nuclear accord, in which Iran agreed to curb its uranium enrichment in exchange for international sanctions relief.
But Rouhani, who gained considerable support after his diplomats inked the landmark nuclear deal with world powers, says that by choosing him, Iranians will say no to extremism and confrontation with the world.
"The main point is, do we want to continue the policy of constructive interaction with the world or resume the policy of confrontation, which can bring back the shadow of war to our country," Rouhani said at a campaign event on Sunday, according to his election campaign's social media channel.
But Rouhani's remark about the "shadow of war" drew a quick rebuke from the country's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in a public speech the same day.
"Some say since we took office the shadow of war has faded away. This is not correct," Khamenei's office quoted him as saying. "It's been the presence of people in the political field that has removed the shadow of war from the country."
So far, the candidates have not released their views about foreign policy. But all of them have called the nuclear deal an accord endorsed by Khamenei, and so they will honor it.
Speaking to Kyodo News, Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst in the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said that Iran's grand strategy is to preserve the nuclear deal and shift the blame of undermining it to the United States, regardless of who wins the election.
Of course, Rouhani and his team of diplomats will be more effective in this task, but any other president will pursue the same strategy, he said.
"A new Iranian president would certainly change the tone and style of Iran's regional and foreign policies, but not its substance," he added.
Hamid Reza Jalaipour, a Tehran-based political analyst, said that although people have not felt the economic consequences of the nuclear deal yet, they are completely aware of the political result even in small cities and villages.
With 20 million people aged between 15 and 29, Iran has a relatively young population, but according to the country's statistics authority, 25.9 percent of them are unemployed. This has led to a higher rate of dissatisfaction with the leadership among them, creating an opening for Rouhani's rivals.
Yones Mehranfar, a 25-year-old unemployed university graduate in Tehran, said he has no faith in the economic and employment promises of the candidates.
"Like my friends, I don't have much hope about the future. I have decided not to participate in the election," he said.
Mohammad Moallemi, 27, an unemployed university graduate with a master's degree in economics who lives in the city of Urmia in the country's northwest, says that despite the economic problems he will support Rouhani again.
"Rouhani has started a positive process in this country. He needs time to implement all his plans and I'm going to give him this chance. Although we have financial problems, he can fix them," he said.
