Topline
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could hit a “record-setting pace,” AccuWeather meteorologists warned in a new forecast released Wednesday, with upwards of 25 named storms expected this summer and fall, a number that would shatter the historical average after a turbulent few seasons marked by devastating storms and unprecedented lulls.
Forecasters predict between 20 and 25 named Atlantic storms during the 2024 hurricane season.
Key Facts
AccuWeather forecasters expect between 20 and 25 named storms (including tropical storms with sustained winds of at least 39 mph) in the Atlantic during the 2024 season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30.
Of those storms, forecasters expect between eight and 12 to become hurricanes (74 mph winds or greater), with four to seven intensifying into Category 3 or higher major hurricanes (at least 111 mph).
If that forecast holds up, the 2024 Atlantic season would surpass the 19 named storms last year or the 14 in 2022, as well as the 14 named storms observed on average over the past three decades, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center.
AccuWeather meteorologists also expect four to seven named storms to have a direct impact on the U.S., a major uptick from last year’s season when only one hurricane—Idalia—made landfall in the U.S. (two tropical storms also impacted the U.S., including Harold in Texas and Ophelia in North Carolina).
AccuWeather hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva says the increase in storm activity this year is due to a confluence of factors, primarily above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and particularly in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and throughout the tropics, where hurricanes typically form.
High temperatures could also promote a phenomenon known as rapid intensification, when storms undergo a sudden jolt in wind speeds over 30 knots in a 24-hour period, as was the case last year with Hurricanes Idalia—a Category 4 storm—and Lee, a Category 5.
Surprising Fact
Forecasters say another factor contributing to a potentially devastating Atlantic hurricane season is tied to a change in weather patterns in the Pacific, where hotter waters associated with El Niño are expected to cool with the onset of La Niña. That quick change, forecasters say, will reduce disruptive wind speeds over the Atlantic basin, a phenomenon called wind shear, though the speed of the transition could drive up storm activity in the Atlantic.
Key Background
Both the 2022 and 2023 hurricane seasons got off to an eerily quiet start in the Atlantic despite devastating predictions, with no storm activity between early July and early September 2022, and no hurricanes last year until Don in mid-July, which fizzled in a remote stretch of the north Atlantic. Hurricane Ian broke that lull in 2022, as the Category 4 storm swept through central Florida, causing widespread flooding and coastal damage, becoming one of Florida’s deadliest storms in decades. Last August, Hurricane Idalia caused an estimated $20 billion in damage, according to Moody’s Analytics, after ravaging Florida and Georgia—though it was the only hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. last year. While Hurricane Lee posed a rare threat to New England in September, it slowly weakened from a Category 5 hurricane before making landfall in eastern Canada.
Further Reading
