Better grab your emergency supplies and make sure you have those extra batteries for your flashlights. If AccuWeather is right, we’re in for a doozy of a hurricane season.
The forecasting company is predicting that we will likely see a near-record number of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean this year, so many that weather forecasters might run out of names for them all.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said in an AccuWeather news report.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic stars on June 1 and runs until the end of November, but it’s possible that that the season could start earlier than usual this year, AccuWeather said.
The reason? Warm waters. The Atlantic’s temperatures were found to be warmer this month than they were during in March of 2005 and 2020, which were both busy hurricane seasons.
“Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region [for hurricanes],” DaSilva said.
The warm water could also help to create systems in November when the season usually winds down.
The other significant contributing factor to a bad hurricane season is due to water near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean. This water is in the process of shifting from El Niño, when temperatures in this area are higher than historical averages, to La Niña, when temperatures are lower. And that transition could affect what happens in the Atlantic, AccuWeather said.
The faster this area transitions to La Niña, the more active this year’s hurricane season will be.
Right now, AccuWeather said its meteorologists are forecasting 20-25 named Atlantic basin storms for 2024, including 8-12 hurricanes, four to seven major hurricanes, with about four to six of them impacting the U.S.
This is far above the 30-year historical average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and four U.S. impacts, the site said.
DaSilva said there’s a 10-15% chance that we see over 30 named storms this year, too.
In 2023 there were feature 19 named storms, but only four impacted the U.S.: Hurricane Idalia, which hit Florida in August; Tropical Storm Harold, which hit Texas; and Tropical Storm Ophelia in North Carolina.
As for what parts of the U.S. are most at risk this season, DaSilva said the Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas are at an elevated risk.
“All residents and interests along the U.S. coast, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, should have a hurricane plan in place and always be fully prepared for a direct impact.,” DaSilva said in the post.
If forecasters do run through the alphabet before they run out of storms, AccuWeather said that the World Meteorological Organization has a supplemental list of names.
